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Development prospects of the toy industry


Release Date:

2025-12-17

The development prospects of the toy industry are broad. Here is a brief introduction: Significant growth in market size: The Chinese toy industry is expected to exhibit structural growth between 2025 and 2030. By 2024, the total retail sales of toys (excluding trendy toys) in the domestic market will reach 97.85 billion yuan, and the total retail sales of trendy and collectible toys will reach 46.57 billion yuan. It is expected that the overall scale will exceed 500 billion yuan by 2030.

The development prospects of the toy industry are broad. Here is a brief introduction:
Significant growth in market size: The Chinese toy industry is expected to exhibit structural growth between 2025 and 2030. By 2024, the total retail sales of toys (excluding trendy toys) in the domestic market will reach 97.85 billion yuan, and the total retail sales of trendy and collectible toys will reach 46.57 billion yuan. It is expected that the overall scale will exceed 500 billion yuan by 2030.
Diversified development in segmented fields: Smart toys, as the core growth engine, are expected to have a penetration rate of 29% by 2025, corresponding to a market size of 85 billion yuan, and will exceed the 200 billion yuan mark by 2030. The trendy toy market has built a unique ecosystem of IP operation and limited marketing, with an estimated scale of 72 billion yuan by 2025. Under the catalysis of the double reduction policy, educational toys have formed a demand market, and by 2025, the scale of STEAM educational toys will reach 48 billion yuan.
The consumer group continues to expand: the proportion of adult toy consumption has jumped from 18% in 2020 to 37% in 2024. Driven by Kidult culture, the compound annual growth rate of collectible trendy toys has reached 23.9%, and the contribution rate of the adult market is expected to exceed 50% by 2030.
Technological innovation drives upgrading: In the future, the toy industry will pay more attention to product innovation and integration, combining IoT and artificial intelligence technologies to create more intelligent products that can deeply interact with users, such as AI multimodal interactive toys, AR/VR technology toys, etc.
Continuous optimization of sales channels: The proportion of live streaming e-commerce channels has risen from 18% in 2022 to 32% predicted by 2025, and the efficiency of private domain traffic operation has increased by 40%. At the same time, offline experience stores have increased brand stickiness through immersive scenes, and the trend of online and offline integration is obvious.
The export market has enormous potential: under the RCEP framework, the import value of ASEAN countries will increase by 19.1% annually, and the toy export value will reach 39.87 billion US dollars in 2024. It is expected that the proportion of cross-border e-commerce channels will reach 40% by 2030, and the export unit price of smart toys will be 3-5 times higher than traditional products.


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The little boy's preference for engineering car toys is the result of a combination of physiological needs, psychological exploration, and environmental guidance. From a physiological development perspective, the movable lifting arms, digging buckets, and other components of engineering vehicles can help children exercise their fine hand movements and hand eye coordination skills while operating them. Their heavy appearance, metallic texture, and simulated roaring sound can also bring strong visual and auditory stimulation, which is in line with boys' natural preference for "sense of power". In terms of psychological needs, construction vehicles have clear "task attributes". When children imitate construction scenes to complete simulation tasks such as excavation and transportation, they can gain a strong sense of achievement and control, stimulate creativity and logical thinking. Meanwhile, construction vehicles are often seen in rare daily scenarios such as construction sites. This "unfamiliar yet powerful" machinery can arouse children's curiosity about the unknown world, allowing them to indirectly explore the construction activities of the adult world through toys. In addition, in the family and social environment, construction vehicles are often assumed to be "boys' toys", and the postnatal guidance of parents, animations, etc. will further strengthen this love. It should be noted that this is not an absolute preference, and many girls may also like construction cars.

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Why the material of children's toys is very important

Safety: Children's skin is delicate and prone to allergic reactions to certain materials. For example, PVC material in plastic toys may contain phthalates, which are harmful to the human body, especially posing a potential threat to children's health 1. Therefore, choosing non-toxic and harmless materials is the key to ensuring the safety of children. Environmental friendliness: The material of children's toys needs to meet environmental standards and avoid using materials containing harmful substances. For example, wooden toys usually use natural wood, which does not contain harmful chemicals and is more environmentally friendly and safe 2. In addition, high-quality plush toys should use environmentally friendly materials that have passed international safety certification to ensure that they will not cause irritation to children's skin 3. Durability: Children have a strong curiosity and enjoy exploring and playing, so toys need to have high durability. High quality wooden toys usually have clear textures, are resistant to falling and not easily deformed, and can withstand children's play 4. Poor quality plastic toys are prone to damage, which not only affects children's playing experience but may also pose safety hazards. Educational significance: The material of toys not only affects their appearance and feel, but may also have an impact on children's cognitive development. For example, the diverse colors and styles of wooden toys can stimulate children's visual nerves, cultivate their color recognition ability and hand eye coordination ability. In addition, toys made of natural materials can allow children to experience the beauty of nature and promote their sensory development.

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